Copyright 2001 Adam Barnhart. All Rights Reserved. Fair use of this document.

After a protracted regular season, replete with records and retirements, the stage has been set for another postseason; a postseason that may make it a few days into November (here's hoping that the climate is more generous this year than it's been in recent years). Even bringing back much of the same cast from the last few seasons, this postseason is characterized by a number of interesting matchups:

The marquee Division Series matchup has to be the three-time defending champion Yankees and the best team in baseball since the All-Star break, the Oakland A's. Despite hanging an amazing 58-17 (.773) record after the All-Star break, behind only the '54 Cleveland Indians .775 winning percentage in major league history, and a 102-60 record for the season as a whole, they finished 14 games behind the Mariners, finding themselves without the home field advantage against the 95-65 Yankeees. Still, the A's, who almost took New York last season, have probably the most impressive collection of young talent in baseball, including the Hudson/Mulder/Zito/Lidle/Hiljus rotation (presumably, Hiljus will go to the pen for the series; depending upon how the series progresses, Lidle may or may not start). Jason Giambi is clearly the best offensive player in the American League, putting up a .342/.477/.660 season that's every bit as impressive as the .333/.476/.647 MVP season last year. The Damon/Dye/Long outfield is arguably the best in baseball and Eric Chavez's power numbers continue to get more impressive each season, slugging .540 with 43 doubles, 32 HRs, and 114 RBI.

The Yankees, though, can't be expected to fold. Despite the general perception of their decline, they've improved by 8 games over last year's Series champions, led by a typically powerful pitching staff. Even with Clemens' two losses at the end of the season, a 20-3 record and 3.51 ERA probably find him the odds on favorite to win another Cy Young (though the W/L percentage is as much a function of offensive support as his typical dominating performance on the mound). Mussina, though getting the sort of support he'd normally get in Baltimore, managed his own Cy Young campaign, going 17-11 with a 3.15 ERA and 214 K's, one more than Clemens and only six behind AL leader Hideo Nomo. With Andy Pettite hanging up another 15-10 season, Mariano Rivera still the best closer in baseball, and Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Derek Jeter leading a much maligned but still effective (fifth in the AL in runs, despite fighting the park) offense, the Yankees shouldn't entirely be counted out. Probably the third best team in baseball, in the first round, they're matched up against the second best team in baseball.

Prediction: Oakland in Five

The Mariners and Indians shouldn't even be a matchup. On paper, it looks like a lousy series, matching up the team that won the most games in the history of the American League, 116, with a team that managed only 91 wins in a mediocre division with an unbalanced schedule. The Mariners, of course, are solid all around, scoring more runs, 928, than any team in baseball despite playing in cavernous Safeco Field and allowing fewer than any team in baseball, including all the DH-free teams of the National League. Stronger on the road (59-22) than at home (57-24), the Mariners don't look like a team with a weakness. Ichiro, if he's nothing like the MVP of the league, has posted one of the great rookie (if you will) seasons in history and is arguably the best leadoff hitter in the game and a hell of a glove in right. Bret Boone managed a Rogers Hornsby-like season, and Edgar is still one of the five or six best hitters in baseball. The staff, led by Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, and a devastating bullpen (though Sasaki's saved 45, Arthur Rhodes' 1.72 ERA, 8-0 record, 32 holds, and 83 K's in 68 innings make him, to my way of thinking, the most valuable reliever in the AL this season with the possible exception of Rivera), has the sort of front-line strengths you'd hope for in the playoffs.

That having been said, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the Indians make a series of it. Despite winning the division, the regular season has to count as almost a mild disappointment to the club. The staff, despite having as many live arms as almost anyone, has been fairly bad, and the offense, led by Thome (who's had MVP-type numbers this season and would probably fair well in the voting if Giambi hadn't been even more impressive), Alomar, and Juan Gone, is as good as anyone's. More to the point, Seattle's featured a number of players (Boone, Cameron, McLemore) who've been playing way over their heads this season. If they come down to earth a little and Cleveland can get a couple of good starts out of Finley, Sabathia, and Colon (any of whom can be dominating if they're on), the series could be a little more even than it looks at first glance. Still, the superior overall talent of the M's should pull them through.

Prediction: Mariners in Five

This series should basically be defined by the question of whether Houston can find itself or not. Atlanta's very much a known quantity; for all the talk of the failures of the pitching staff, only Seattle allowed fewer runs on the season. Maddux (3.05 ERA), Glavine (3.57), and Burkett (3.04) might not be riveting, but allowing 3 to 3 1/2 runs a game has a funny way of helping a team win, even with a fairly uninteresting offense. The Jones boys are brilliant, Brian Jordan's not bad, and the rest of the team is summed up offensively by the return of former middle infielder Julio Franco (who was a hell of a player in his prime, incidentially...far better than he was generally recognized for being), summoned to play first base and bring some punch to the offense. They're a veteran team; even their young guys, Wes Helms and Marcus Giles, have a "been there, done that" manner about them. After kicking away a few playoff series in the bullpen, the Smoltz/Karsay/Lightenberg/Remlinger/Reed pen is probably as good 1 to 5 as anyone in the National League (just getting Rocker out of town should help). Presumably Jason Marquis, probably the most intriguing talent on the club not named Jones, will get an inning or two somewhere.

Houston, though, has the talent to blow Atlanta out of the water. Their pitching staff has more live arms (Oswalt, Miller, Dotel, Wagner, Williams, Cruz) than anyone and the offense, when clicking, is spectacular. Bagwell (.288/.397/.568) is one of the best hitters in baseball, though his run of .300/30/100 seasons ended this season. Biggio, though not running much these days, is still on base constantly (.382 OBP this season, .388 and .386 the two previous years) and Lance Berkman's .331/.430/.620 with 34 dingers, 5 triples, and 55(!) doubles certainly makes him the MVP of the 'stros this year and could be league MVP numbers (especially for a guy who plays CF with a great deal of enthusiasm, if not quite Gary Pettis/Richie Ashburn range) in another season. With Moises Alou, Richard Hidalgo, Vinnie Castilla, and Daryle Ward around for further mashing, the Astros are certainly capable of putting up big numbers. At the moment, though, Houston seems to be floundering. If the Braves' pitching staff can keep Houston from going yard four times a game and putting up massive numbers, they should have a good chance to sneak off with the series. My guess is that Maddux, Glavine, and Company are up to it.

Prediction: Atlanta in Four

A matchup of the two NL teams coming into the playoffs with clear forward momentum, Arizona/St. Louis may offer the most dazzling performances, in terms of power pitching, power hitting, and power fielding (Edmonds sure looks like he's got a 50CE Hoover for a glove, anyhow). Arizona rides two horses awfully hard, but no one else in the game has two horses like Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, probably the two most intimidating pitchers in baseball at the moment; Schilling's 293 strikeouts, though 79 behind the Big Unit's 372, would have led the AL by 73. Behind those two, though, with Armando Reynoso, Russ Springer, Todd Stotlemeyer, and Matt Mantei, is a more erratic staff. Albie Lopez got off to a great start in Tampa, then proceeded to lose 19 on the season (including an unimpressive 4-7 mark under the late summer sun in Arizona). Miguel Batista, having a solid year (11-8 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP) is still a question mark, coming off a year when he left a 7.74 ERA in Kansas City only to nearly double it (14.04) across 25 painful outs in Montreal. The pen, though maligned, features Byung-Hyun Kim, who threw 98 relief innings, striking out 113 with an ERA under 3; along with Bret Prinz (4-1, 9 saves, 2.63 ERA), who's young but fearless; and relic Mike Morgan, who hasn't had a particularly good year since he went 16-8 for the '92 Dodgers, but has been at least marginally effective in Arizona. Offensively, Luis Gonzalez has been phenomenal, hitting the quietest 57 HRs in major league history. The rest of the team is less phenomenal, Reggie Sanders coasting from a Gonzalez-like start to a still strong .263/.337/.549, Mark Grace putting up another competent but unexciting year, Erubial Durazo fighting through injuries and erratic playing time to tear the cover off the ball for yet another half-season, with no one else, including veterans Jay Bell and Matt Williams, doing anything particularly exceptional with the bat.

St. Louis has its own set of spectacular talents. Jim Edmonds, despite a lower-key season than last year, when he finished fourth in the MVP voting, has had another great year in St. Louis (.304/.410/.564 vs. 2000's .295/.411/.583). McGwire, though tagging nearly as many HRs as last year (29 to 2000's 32), saw his batting average crash from .305 to .187, striking out a phenomenal 118 times in 299 ABs. Perhaps most shockingly, Luis Pujols, the Cardinals 3B/1B/RF/LF, went .329/.403/.610 with 47 doubles and 37 HRs, scoring 112 and driving in 130. Installed in the cleanup spot, Pujols gave the Cards another spectacular offensive performer to go along with Edmonds and fellow phenom J.D. Drew (who went .323/.414/.613 in 432 PAs and may have been even more valuable than Pujols and Edmonds the first third of the season). Matt Morris (22-8, 3.16) and Darryl Kile (16-11, 3.08) give St. Louis a strong 1-2 punch of their own (among qualifiers in the NL ERA race, Johnson/Schilling finished 1-2, Burkett/Maddux finished 3-4, and Kile/Morris finished 5-6, allowing for a certain regularity in assessing the staff aces for the three clubs [and the fourth, with Wade Miller 10th in the league in ERA, Shane Reynolds 24th]). Woody Williams has been as strong a pitcher as anyone in the NL over the last couple months; clearly of the pitchers on the Padre staff, it was Williams and not Sterling Hitchcock who was the more valuable property. If there's a fourth starter on the staff, it may actually be Bud Smith, who qualifies as a product of the 70s by only a couple of months, and not former phenom Dustin Hermanson, who ends up on the mound. With all that talent, there's no reason to think that the Cardinals can't win the series. The club's depth is certainly superior and if the series depends in any way on the guys beyond the half-dozen best players on the team, the Cards should win. But, especially in a short series, the front-line talent should be able to carry the day. And the Diamondbacks have the most spectacular cast of front-line talent in the National League.

Prediction: Arizona in Five