Copyright 2003 Adam Barnhart. All Rights Reserved. Fair use of this document.

(Sort of) arguing against new baseball exec Bill James, Ken Rosenthal says that the 'pen is mightier with a closer. Some of what he says here is certainly right: the Red Sox wouldn't be trying out a bullpen-by-committee if they had John Smoltz down there, it was certainly smart of the Sox not to resign Uggie Urbina at that price, and the teams who've gone to the World Series are generally teams who've had a good closer. Beyond that, though Rosenfeld seems to be confusing himself, with a few threads hanging around that suggest an argument, but never actually accrete into one. He says that the strategy the Red Sox go into the season looking to employ won't work, but we're left to figure out why.

He begins with the argument against the closer-by-committee. Rosenthal points out that 44 of 56 postseason teams have had a 30-save guy, 12 of 14 World Series teams. There is certainly a relationship between the two, but 18 of the 30 teams in baseball had a 30-save guy in the pen (6 of 14 in the AL, 12 of 16 in the NL) last season and, if you loosen that standard just a little to 25 saves, you get 23 of the 30 teams (10 of 14 in the AL, 13 of 16 in the NL) with a closer that we could call "credible." Since the number of saves a team gets is fairly strongly correlated with wins (see chart below for 2002 numbers) and the closer is hardly the only determining factor in the number of games a club actually wins, the argument doesn't go as far as it might:

AL East Record Team Saves Closer Closer Saves New York 103-58 53 Rivera 28 Boston 93-69 51 Urbina 40 Toronto 78-84 41 Escobar 38 Baltimore 67-95 31 Julio 25 Tampa Bay 55-106 25 Yan 19 AL Central Record Team Saves Closer Closer Saves Minnesota 94-67 47 Guardado 45 Chicago 81-81 35 Foulke/Osuna 11 Cleveland 74-88 34 Wickman 20 Kansas City 62-100 33 Hernandez 26 Detroit 55-106 33 Acevedo 28 AL West Record Team Saves Closer Closer Saves Oakland 103-59 48 Koch 44 Anaheim 99-63 54 Percival 40 Seattle 93-69 43 Sasaki 37 Texas 72-90 33 Irabu 16

NL East Record Team Saves Closer Closer Saves Atlanta 101-59 57 Smoltz 55 Montreal 83-79 39 Stewart 17 Philadelphia 80-81 47 Mesa 45 Florida 79-83 36 Nunez 20 New York 75-86 36 Benitez 33 NL Central Record Team Saves Closer Closer Saves St. Louis 97-65 42 Isringhausen 32 Houston 84-78 43 Wagner 35 Cincinati 78-84 42 Graves 32 Pittsburgh 72-89 47 Williams 46 Chicago 67-95 23 Alfonseca 19 Milwaukee 56-106 32 DeJean 27 NL West Record Team Saves Closer Closer Saves Arizona 98-84 40 Kim 36 San Francisco 95-66 43 Nen 43 Los Angeles 92-70 56 Gagne 52 Colorado 73-89 43 Jimenez 41 San Diego 66-96 40 Hoffman 38

In the cases where there isn't a closer with a large number of saves, you're not really seeing a bullpen-by-committee strategy; rather, what you're seeing is a team cycling through closers. This is most obvious in Texas, where, with Zimmerman out, the team ran Irabu out there until he stopped being effective and Cordero until he got hurt. Seven other guys, including John Rocker, picked up a save somewhere along the line. The White Sox began the season with Foulke picking up the saves, moved to Osuna in mid-season when Foulke struggled, and ended the season with Marte, but never really had more than a week or two at any point in the season where the closer role wasn't clearly in the hands of one guy. Montreal, with Frank Robinson doing his Felipe Alou impersonation, had the closest thing to a bullpen-by-committee, running guys in and out of one of the most effective bullpens in the league. If there's an argument against sharing the load, it isn't to be found in Montreal, whose bullpen was one of the keys to a surprisingly successful season in 2002.

That having been said, Epstein's argument isn't necessarily for the closer-by-committee, but something a little different, according to his quote in the Rosenfeld piece:

"When we say we're not going to have a closer, it doesn't mean that we don't want a dominant pitcher in the 'pen. Of course we do. Usage pattern is the key. We want to get to a point where the most critical outs are pitched by the best pitchers for that situation, be it in the seventh, eighth or ninth inning."

In the case of the Red Sox, this position bleeds a little into the closer-by-committee, as the Red Sox have chosen not to anoint one guy as the closer and move everyone else into some kind of "middle" or "set-up" role. Again, Rosenthal is right on in noting that "only a handful of closers are consistently successful." The aforementioned Keith Foulke went into the 2002 season as one of the best closers in the league and lost his job less than half-way through the year (though his performance in the balance of 2002 suggests that his early season problems were only temporary in nature, a fact the A's have capitalized on nicely). Rosenthal asks how little will manage the pen at the end of the game "in Yankee Stadium when none of his relievers carries a closer's aura." But how many guys in the league really carry have an "aura?" Mariano Rivera? Sure, but he was hurt a big chunk of the season and the Yankees won anyhow, with Karsay and (yes) Mendoza saving games. Trevor Hoffman certainly qualifies, but he's spent most of his career toiling for teams that have, with the exception of '96 and '98, ranged from mediocre to bad. Robb Nen, certainly. Troy Percival has as much "aura" as anyone outside of Rivera, but his best year was '95, when he was setting up Lee Smith, and the middle four years in his eight-year career are fairly mediocre by closer standards (granted, he pitched through a number of physical problems, but he still blew some games that hurt the club, whether he did so bravely or not). Smoltz qualifies, of course, but I'm not sure whether to call that "closer aura" or "great pitcher aura," as he was much the same as a starter. There are a few others who've the credentials and the reputation: Billy Wagner and Kazuhiro Sasaki head that list. There are other guys who are good, but come with a question mark: Guardado led the AL in saves, but he's 32 and has been in the league since he was 22 without putting up those kinds of numbers; Gagne was great last season, but had an ERA+ of 84 in 2000 and 2001 (albeit primarily as a starter); Mike Williams and Jose Mesa have been up and down throughout their careers; Byung-Hyun Kim looks great to me, but no one else aside from Brenly thinks of him as a good closer; Danny Graves is back to being a starter; Roberto Hernandez is solid, but 38 and hardly dominant at this point in his career; Koch, Benitez, Julio, and, yes, Urbina have the numbers, but not the fan club.

Aware of that fact and the narrow margin that separates many closers from the guys who come in a little earlier, the Red Sox have dispensed with the idea of chucking $7 or $8 million at a closer and have instead picked up a few guys who've been good in the pen over the years, two of whom (Timlin and Howry) have some experience at being "The Man" in the pen and couple of others (Mendoza and Embree) who have some experience filling in when the Closer is off-duty. All four of those guys have had success in more than one role and have all been fairly rubber-armed over the years (though Howry's numbers look, to me, like someone who's losing effectiveness awfully quickly), though with distinct enough skills that it seems to me as though Grady Little should be able to deal with the apparently Herculean task of figuring out who should pitch when (try to spot Embree against lefties as much as possible, use Howry as the fireballer, Mendoza can replace Wakefield as the swingman).

A number of teams, though using the closer fairly conventionally, have already reached a similar place in the structure of their bullpen. Guys like Octavio Dotel, Felix Rodriguez, Steve Karsay, and Arthur Rhodes have become key figures in bullpens by putting out the fires that come before the ninth inning. A major pillar in the success of the success of the Angels and Twins was being able to pull together contingents of highly successful middle relievers. Guys like Brendan Donnelly (2.17 ERA in 49 2/3 innings), Ben Weber (2.53 ERA in 78 innings), J.C. Romero (1.88 ERA in 81 innings), and LaTroy Hawkins (2.12 ERA in 80 1/3 innings) were as important, if not more important, to the success of the bullpen as Percy and Everyday Eddie. Atlanta, of course, rode what was probably the best bullpen in baseball to another divisional championship. The Yankees enjoyed an uptick in their regular season record even with Rivera picking up only 53% of the team's saves; their postseason experience only served to reinforce the value of having good guys coming out of the pen earlier on.

As far as I can tell, the Red Sox have responded to their particular situation reasonably and intelligently. I'm sure they'd love to have Robb Nen or Mariano Rivera coming out of the pen, but, in lieu of that, they've assembled a cast of guys who seem to be able to pitch fairly well. I expect, based on what we're hearing from Epstein, that we'll see a Felipe Alou/Whitey Herzog-style bullpen, and I don't see why it won't work. We haven't seen a lot of this, recently, but letting the stats define the role (and, to be honest, this has only been true since about the late 80s, which is why guys like Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage don't have the imposing save numbers you see from Hoffman, Nen, and Rivera) is an evolutionary cul de sac in strategy that I'd expect to see end at some point. The Red Sox may very well end up leading the way.