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Copyright 1998 Adam Barnhart. All Rights Reserved. Fair use of this document.The smell of popcorn, the chirping of the birds, the sun peeping through the clouds, the Los Angeles Clippers hoping against hope to avoid another season in the cellar. It's Spring again, which marks two annual traditions: baseball and unsuccessful baseball prognostication. Remember, you heard it here first...
American League West
American League Central
American League East
Wildcard: New York Yankees
National League West
National League Central
National League East
Wildcard: Los Angeles Dodgers World Series: Cleveland over St. Louis (4-2)
American League West An unreconstructed Angels' fan, I'm going to pick them to win the division, with some misgivings. Seattle should win the division -- they're an offensive juggernaut, and the pitching with a healthy Randy Johnson should be at least passable. But the Mariners gave up uberprospect Jose Cruz Jr. last year without shoring up the bullpen, Big Unit's making grumbling noises, and Buhner, Martinez, and Moyer are older than they used to be. Like the Tigers of the early 80's, the Mariners have chronically underachieved for one reason or another for several years. The question is whether the Mariners have a 1984 in them. It's now or never. The Rangers moved shrewedly in the offseason, bringing in some second-line free agents that should help them out quite a bit and give them a legitimate chance to surprise. The A's may not impress this season, though with Ben Grieve, A.J. Hinch, Miguel Tejada, et. al., they're about two years away from being downright scary. In the meantime, importing Tom Candiotti, Shane Mack, Mike Fetters, and Kenny Rogers, while bringing back prodigal basestealer Rickey Henderson makes them credible, something they lacked last year, even with the almost season-long run of Bash Brothers, The Return in the Oakland Colosseum. The Angels look as good a bet as any in this mess. If Seattle's talent doesn't run away from everyone out of the gate, a full season of Todd Greene and Ken Hill should solidify things a bit. Cecil Fielder's a poor substitute for the stick that Mark McGwire could have been swinging for the Angels, but 500 at bats should give Fielder (whose name is false advertising if I've ever heard it) a chance to get his swing together, something he wasn't about to have an opportunity to do in the Bronx. They don't, at the moment, look like a Series champion (or even a pennant winner), but in a division that's defined I'm OK, You're OK for the baseball community over the last 10 years, they've got a good shot at this year's divisional crown.
American League Central The Indians are solid this year. Getting Kenny Lofton back for this pass at the Series gives them a serious leadoff threat, in front of a scary lineup that looks like it just may be hitting its prime now. The Sox have Albert Belle and the second coming of Ted Williams, which should have them performing credibly. Unlike the basketball team across town, though, they can't get the ball in the hands of their star at the end of every game, and the rest of the roster falls decidedly into the mediocre category. The Tigers were the big surprise of last season. This team is for real -- Tony Clark, Bobby Higginson, and Damion Easley all look like long-term talents, though Easley's history is a little spotty. Justin Thompson had a tremendous year, and the Todd Jones/A.J. Sager/Tim Worrell bullpen looks legitimately solid. Even successful rebuilding phases, though, need their periods of consolidation, and if the Tigers are able to solidify the gains made last year, they should consider it a successful season. They won't be a legitimate threat to the Indians until the millenial odometer kicks over. The Twins and Royals are fighting a battle against facelessness. With Jeff Conine, Hal Morris, and Jeff King's 112 RBI's sitting in the middle of the lineup, the Royals have a bit more oomph in the lineup. The Twins, on the other hand, have master motivator Tom Kelly, who seems to have the Felipe Alou knack of getting far too much out of far too little, Marty Cordova's retreat into mediocrity notwithstanding.
American League East The Mother of All Pennant Races. Peter Angelos seems to want to be George Steinbrenner very badly, spending millions to assemble a team with a phenomenal level of talent, by reptuation, at least. Steinbrenner's club is a most atypical Yankee venture -- with Chuck Knoblauch joining Chad Curtis and Paul O'Neill, you could almost describe the club as "scrappy." That having been said, none of the four major Oriole acquisitions (Joe Carter, Ozzie Guillen, Doug Drabek, and Norm Charlton) figure to help the club all that much. Carter drove in 102 runs last year, but he figures to take playing time away from Jeffrey Hammonds and Harold Baines, both of whom swing a bigger stick than Carter at this point. Guillen's still got a solid glove, but he's gone from being a singles hitter with few redeeming offensive traits to someone you'd pinch hit for with a middle reliever with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. Drabek's got the best chance of helping the club, but crossing his birth certificate with the 5.74 ERA he posted last year doesn't necessarily leave the fifth starter spot comfortably plugged. Charlton was probably the biggest fire-starter in the worst bullpen in the league last year. A change of scenery may help, but it isn't something to count on. The Yankees offseason maneuvering seems a little more prudent by comparison. Beyond Knoblauch, the Yankees brought in Darren Holmes from Colorado, which should knock a couple of runs off his ERA. Scott Brosius shouldn't be counted on for another 1996, but he'll likely beat last year's .203 batting average by a comfortable amount. Chili Davis seems to be aging better than anyone outside of McGwire. The consensus, based on this, has the Yankees taking this crown. The Orioles, however, have most of the spots on their roster filmed firmly and solidly. The Yankees seem to have thrown a lot of bodies at their problems over the last few years. While this approach has generally worked for The Pinstriped Satan, the balanced approach of the Orioles seems a shorter route to the title. The rest of the division looks a step behind. The Sox have Pedro Martinez to pitch in front of that offense, but the rotation, as per usual, looks a little thin. The Blue Jays have Jose Cruz, Jr. for a whole season, along with Mike Stanley and the mercurial Jose Canseco to hit into front of what might be the best staff in the league, but they'll still be near the bottom of the league in runs scored. The Devil Rays...well, they have Bubba Trammell.
National League West Of all the races this season, the NL West is certainly the one that makes an appeal to precognitive skills most strongly. The Padres, Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies all have a shot at the title. The Padres seem the most solid bet, having added Kevin Brown and Mark Langston to the rotation. If Greg Vaughn is able to come back from a disappointing season, the Padres should have a strong offense to go along with what looks like the best staff in the division. The Dodgers have the potential to blow the doors off the division. Like the football team that once played a few miles to the South, though, the Dodgers are beginning to understand that unadulterated athletic ability is not the only prerequisite for a championship quality team. Despite all the talk of repairing team chemistry, the biggest challenge facing the Boys in Blue this season will be repairing an anemic outfield. Aside from Raul Mondesi, the outfield experiements of the last few seasons (Todd Hollandsworth, Billy Ashley, Eric Anthony, Otis Nixon, Karim Garcia) have flopped. Hollandsworth and Ashley, the team's alleged power in Left Field, combined for 10 dingers and 50 RBI with an average under .250. If Paul Konerko, a dedicated first baseman to date, can succeed in Left (or Eric Karros can make the move), the Dodgers offense may be 50 runs a game better this year. The Giants, in contrast to the Dodgers, don't seem to have the horses to make the run. They found themselves in a similar situation last season, however, and proved they were up to the task. A mid-season acquisition or two may be in order to solidify the team. To that end, Brian "I'm Not An Idiot" Sabean is one of the two or three shrewedest guys in an MLB front office at the moment. The Rockies will miss Galarraga (though likely not as much as conventional wisdom suggests), but they'll still hit .280 with 200 homers as a team. The question: Even with Darryl Kile on hand, will it be enough? Kile, coming in from Houston, has a 50/50 chance of posting an ERA above 4.50. The Diamondbacks aren't going to win the division, but they have the front-line talent to put a good run together. It wouldn't be surprising to see them near .500 when the All-Star break rolls around.
National League Central Big Mac. The whole world waits to see if he can beat Maris. Two games into the season, you may hear that he's "on pace to hit 324 home runs." What hasn't been discussed as much recently is how good the Cardinals look with a legitimate 50-homer man in the middle of the lineup. Ray Lankford is a legitimate cleanup hitter with legitimate leadoff speed, DeShields is making strides in the plate discipline category, and Brian Jordan, if healthy, should give the offense a big boost. The real question is how the 5-8 spots in the lineup will hit. If sporadic Ron Gant has a good year or Gary Gaetti continues his remarkable hitting into retirement age, the lineup should score a bundle of runs. If the Cardinals can't put the expected season together, look for the Astros to assume the lead role. This is a team whose second best player scored 146 runs last season. The loss of their ace hurts the team tremendously, but the 1998 version of the Astro offense may be, with the addition of Moises Alou, the best in club history. The Cubs looks like a solid third place team. Sammy Sosa's a tremendous Rotisserie League player (.251, 36, 119, 22) who's reasonably good in either Center or Right, but his lack of plate discipline keeps him from being an offensive force of the first order. They've brought in the effective-but-interesting Rod Beck as closer, which should give them 30 or 40 additional innings of drama at Wrigley, but doesn't quite make them a contender on the order of St. Louis or Houston. The Pirates are in the Tigers' position of trying to consolidate the gains of last season. The organization is in a good position to move a number of additional prospects in, but none of them look quite like Tony Clark or Justin Thompson. They'll probably fall a little from 1998's 79-83 record, a record that won't have them in the pennant race in a much improved division. The Reds have Barry Larkin, Jeff Shaw, Willie Greene, and not enough beyond that to make a real run at the title. The last place for the Brewers is mostly wishful thinking -- with Marquis Grissom added to a lineup including John Jaha, Dave Nilsson, and Jeromy Burnitz, they'll probably finish around .500. But interim-commissioner-for-life Bud Selig doesn't deserve the team he has. Maybe the Kansas City A's. Or the Cleveland Spiders.
National League East This division figures to hold all the suspense of brushing one's teeth in the morning. Atlanta's been a juggernaut ever since leaping out of last place in '91, and, barring injuries to the starting pitching, they're a cinch for another divisional crown. That having been said, losing McGriff for Galarraga has the potential to hurt the team (though the most productive period of McGriff's career is likely over), and they've coughed the best leadoff hitter in the game back up to Cleveland (though Walt Weiss at the top of the order now looks like a solid decision), which may prevent the Braves from making it back to the Series. The Mets turned over a load of bodies in the offseason, exporting a boatload of pitching, outfielders, and the odd corner infielder for a slightly better boatload of pitching, outfielders, and the odd corner infielder. They aren't going to challenge the Braves, though they may again be in the running for a wildcard spot. The Expos had their perennial fire sale -- Felipe Alou looks like he's aiming for the title role in The Miracle Worker, keeping this team afloat with the all-star team the ownership group has hemmorraged during his tenure in Montreal. Still, it would be folly to expect an Alou-managed team to flop, though they've got easily the smallest base of clearly identifiable talent in the majors. The Phillies, though losing a double play combination, look like they're headed in the right direction, with Scott Rolen, and imports Mark Lewis and Bobby Abreu spearheading the rebuilding process. A team that plays 45-36 ball over the second half of the season isn't likely to drop back under .400, and a return to form by Ricky Bottalico and Mark Leiter could cut 100 runs off the team's terrible total of last year. The Marlins seem to still have the talent on the roster to make a reasonable run this season, but there's every indication that Huizenga's not done, and no matter how much native ability the team in question might have, no International League team has yet won the World Series. I wouldn't bet on the Marlins to buck that trend.
So, go forth and put your money on the Cardinals and Orioles. And when they're in last place at the All-Star Break, just forget all of this ever existed...
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